One of the questions asked on Juju's blogs:
OL:
Should you stick with your original choice or switch?
Juju: You should switch. I don't actually understand why.
Here's why:
Assume you had 3 face-down cards to choose from: 2 of them have goats on them and 1 of them has a car. The card you pick represents the prize you will receive.
You pick your card and then you are given the opportunity to switch your card for one of the other two.
You have a 66.6% chance of your card being a goat, and 33.3% chance it's a car. If you were to switch your card, assuming you did have a goat picked, the chance of picking a car is now 50%. So you should switch your card.
March o' War News_________________________
Things I have completed:
-Rhythm System (determines what score you get depending how close you are to the beat and how accurate you are in pressing the right keys.)
Oh goodness, the Monty Hall Paradox. I remember I once accidently thought about it while trying to fall asleep at about 1 am, and as a result I didn't sleep up til 3 am (with a Wikipedia check in between at about 2 am).
I love the paradox, though - cognitive errors are a wonderful topic.Since.
SINCE.SENCE.SCENCESASIEFNASDOINAGFUCSDUFCKDUCKFUCKNow stop that.You forgot to add that after picking a card, another card with a goat on it is revealed.
Erm, just so you know, somebody made a blog about this… a long time ago…
I always thought the chance of picking the car after changing was 2/3, not 1/2
I don't think it's 1/2