Thoughts: Probabilities

Posted by MahFreenAmeh on Feb. 10, 2006, 5:11 p.m.

I was tlaking to my friends at lunch earlier, and i decided to tell them about one of my theories on Probabilities.

Sure, there are things that have a 3 million in one chance, etc, of happening..

But, any way around, there is only a 50%/50% chance of it actually happening.

That seems logical to me, yet not to them. It can either happen, or not happen.

At any given moment, you can either think about one thing, or not about that one thing, because, it will either not happen, or will happen.

It doesn't matter how improbably it is. It either WILL happen(50% Chance), or WON'T Happen(50% Chance)

Comments

melee-master 18 years, 9 months ago

I agree.

Pandaroo_Fang 18 years, 9 months ago

Yep yep, very true. Hah weird, I've actually thought about this a few times myself…

Josea 18 years, 9 months ago

yeah, interesting. i though that also becasue soemthing that happened to em sometime ago….

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

I was thinking about this yesterday =O!

I don't think its that it has a 50% chance, its that there are two possibilities, it happens or it doesn't. But those chances aren't equal. Events have a 0% chance of happening or a 100% chance of happening, what we do is average those out to make an overall percent.

Yeah, a single instance cant have a 37% chance of happening, unless we have a branching universe with 37/100 branches having it happening.

MahFreenAmeh 18 years, 9 months ago

Other Thoughts:

If there is a 50% Chance of something happening, then there is a 50% chance of their being a 50% chance of that happenning, so on, and so forth.

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

Uhh, there isn't a 50 percent chance of something happening. There is either a 100 or 0. Explain your reasoning, please. Just because there are two possible outcomes doesn't mean they have the same weighting.

DSG 18 years, 9 months ago

no. i no what u mean there is 1 outcome out of 2 possible out comes (happening and not happening). but what u need 2 realize is that the 'not happening' outcome could be a million different things.

think of it this way: (happening, not happening (something else), not happening (something else), not happening (something else), not happening (something else), ) etc

DSG 18 years, 9 months ago

1! x 1!

———–

2!

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

^^? 0.5?

Fender 18 years, 9 months ago

I agree too. But if you're thinking to a more "fate" like way, wouldn't it be there's either a 100% chance or a 0% chance of happening? That's not how I think though.