Thoughts: Probabilities

Posted by MahFreenAmeh on Feb. 10, 2006, 5:11 p.m.

I was tlaking to my friends at lunch earlier, and i decided to tell them about one of my theories on Probabilities.

Sure, there are things that have a 3 million in one chance, etc, of happening..

But, any way around, there is only a 50%/50% chance of it actually happening.

That seems logical to me, yet not to them. It can either happen, or not happen.

At any given moment, you can either think about one thing, or not about that one thing, because, it will either not happen, or will happen.

It doesn't matter how improbably it is. It either WILL happen(50% Chance), or WON'T Happen(50% Chance)

Comments

DSG 18 years, 9 months ago

fate? wtf? were talking probability (and ! is a mathmatical term. 4! equals 4x3x2x1. 6! = 6x5x4x3x2x1, etc)

MahFreenAmeh 18 years, 9 months ago

HOw else could i explain it? THere could just as well be a 100% Chance of something happening, and a 0% chance of something happening, which, when you add the two together, and average it out…

50%.

Either way around… It will either happen, or not happen. That's where i draw 50/50 from. 50 Goes towards it's happening, and the other 50 goes towards it's not happening

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

I know what a factorial is DarkSirrus!

geeze, but your think equalled 0.5…

MahFreenAmeh, your thing assumes that there are equal numbers of things that equall 100% and equal things that equal 0%, and is then applying it to everything. Not the best thing to do.

MahFreenAmeh 18 years, 9 months ago

IT doesn't matter how equal the items are. Either they WILL HAPPEN, or they WON'T is what i am trying to get at.

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

Yes, everyone agrees with you on that, but you make the claim that they have an equal chance of happening or not happening. Also, I think it is super obvious that they will either happen or not <__<

chicklet 18 years, 9 months ago

i know this has nothing to do with anything but i might've killed the buildings washing machine… no joke… i'm looking at it spazz out… and im on your page so i thought i'd write… yeah…

DSG 18 years, 9 months ago

right lol i jst realized that. well 4!/8! doesnt = 1/2 lol but uhm… it equals… uhm… 24/2048? sorry did it in my head

ludamad 18 years, 9 months ago

I know. But you're equation happened to equal 0.5

I'm a math freak, so don't assume anything =P

MahFreenAmeh 18 years, 9 months ago

I don't see how they can't have an unequal chance of happening or not. Either they will, and there is a 50% chance of that happening at any given time, and, perhaps, a never ending sequence of 50% chances of those happening, etc, and a 50% chance of it NOT happening. 50/50 Is an overall statistic when it comes to judging probabilities. It's saying that.. either this WILL happen, or this WON'T happen, and both have an equal chance of doing so, no?

While saying 75/25 Gives the former a larger lead..

But, either way around, it will either happen, which we will set as a given variable, say, X, or it won't, say, Y.

I suppose the Odds could change at any time, but i like to use 50/50 as a universal measure.

BAsically, what i'm saying is if X==Y, Then Z, the action, has either an X chance, or a Y chance of happening.

I love talking about math.

And i just love using "==" instead of "=".

MahFreenAmeh 18 years, 9 months ago

And, to quote you…

"Events have a 0% chance of happening or a 100% chance of happening, what we do is <B><STRONG>average</B></STRONG> those out to make an overall percent.

"

Ok. So what's the average of 100 and 0?

50. Just thought i would bring that up like i did earlier.